Nexus One Sales: Will They Be More Like Avatar or Gigli? － Post by Ben Parr

[lovemarser]

The launch of the Google Nexus One is one of the most hyped phone releases in recent memory. Only the iPhone, Palm Pre, and Droid really compare to the hype.

Yet now we’ve learned that around only 20,000 Nexus Ones have been sold in the first week, a dismal number compared to the 250,000 Droids and 1.6 million iPhone 3GSes sold in their first seven days on the market. What the hell happened?

It’s definitely not time for Google to panic, especially as Google attempts to pioneer a new business model for selling phones and many have yet to be shipped out. Still, the fabled Google Phone seems insignificant compared to its bigger Apple rival.

From this point on, I suggest that Nexus One sales will mimic the sales of one of two movies: the James Cameron blockbuster Avatar or the Ben Affleck/Jennifer Lopez box office bomb Gigli.

The Gigli Scenario


Gigli had a budget of $54 million, much of which was used to pay for the salaries of Affleck, Lopez, and Al Pacino. During its first weekend though, the movie grossed less than $4 million, an utter bomb. It’s now considered by many as one of the biggest box office bombs of all time (as well as being a terrible, terrible movie).

In the Gigli scenario, the Nexus One would continue to sell badly, never really breaking 20,000 units sold per week. Sure, eventually there might be a few hundred thousand on the market, but Google’s phone wouldn’t come anywhere near the sales of the iPhone or the Droid. More importantly, Google wouldn’t recuperate its cost and its reputation would be tarnished.

At least Google would get a Razzie.

The Avatar Effect


Avatar started out with a bang on its opening weekend, although nothing like Spiderman or Pirates of the Carribean. But then, like Titanic, the movie didn’t slow down. It’s now the second highest grossing movie of all time because people are still buying tickets, long after its opening weekend.

In the Avatar scenario, the Nexus One benefits from positive buzz, happy customers, and word-of-mouth marketing. Its sales either stay consistent or rise as more and more people experience their friends’ Google phones. Another bump occurs when the device hits the Nexus One. The end result would eventually be a launch that beat the Droid and comes close to sales of the iPhone.

Which Scenario Is More Likely?

I’ve presented two potential outcomes for Nexus One sales, but as with most things in life, the answer lies in the middle. The Nexus One won’t bomb: it’s too good of a phone for that to happen. What’s more likely is that people slowly become more comfortable with the online sales model Google is pioneering with its self-branded phone and will eventually purchase it after playing around with a friend’s phone or hearing enough about it.

Will the Nexus One beat the Droid? Probably not: the Droid just has a lot more marketing muscle behind it. Yet it’s not the Nexus One that will likely be Google’s star device, but the Nexus Two and whatever phones they release in the product line.

Google is making a long-term investment in Android and in changing the business model of choosing a carrier first and a business model second. As it hones in on the perfect phone and more people get comfortable with Google.com/Phone, sales will pick up.


Eventually, the Nexus line will reach Avatar levels, only second to the iPhone. We’re not worried about the long-term prospects of the Google Phone.

[Joshhawaii]

Interesting...I'd like to see the discussion that follows on this post.
I think the Nexus One has two problems against it:
1. It's out after the holiday season, when most people who were going to get a smart phone probably got one (iPhone, Pre, Droid, other)
2. The only contract subsidy you can get with it is the individual plan, which keeps people on family plans or other set plans from being able to get this phone on the cheap. Most people I know think $530 for a phone is utterly ridiculous, and I agree, especially when you can get a very similar one (Droid) for $330.
(That being said, I still got it. I am glad I was able to return my Christmas present MotoCliq in the 14 day return window)

[giodelgado]

stop comparing and buy whatever you feel is right, it isn't a competition -___-'''

there's no killer, there's options.

[ben]

Originally Posted by Joshhawaii

Interesting...I'd like to see the discussion that follows on this post.
I think the Nexus One has two problems against it:
1. It's out after the holiday season, when most people who were going to get a smart phone probably got one (iPhone, Pre, Droid, other)
2. The only contract subsidy you can get with it is the individual plan, which keeps people on family plans or other set plans from being able to get this phone on the cheap. Most people I know think $530 for a phone is utterly ridiculous, and I agree, especially when you can get a very similar one (Droid) for $330.
(That being said, I still got it. I am glad I was able to return my Christmas present MotoCliq in the 14 day return window)

You also have to remember that this is the 3rd iPhone put out so it has a large customer base already built in and Verizon spent $100 million dollars advertising the Droid. The largest amount spent advertising a phone ever. You really can't compare what Google has done compared to those two.

[Pegasusrider]

you CAN get this phone under a family plan, unfortunately, it must be with buying it outright then getting the plan. So yes, you fork out the $530 ($572 with tax for us each) but then we got the family plan and are paying less now then if we 'upgraded' the phone for $180.

[viperman]

Here in the UK majority of people don't even know it has been released.
They are also not accustomed to buying a phone from a website abroad.

Google need to start advertising using the regular channels and have distribution in the countries they wish to sell in.

I think the phone is great... the best phone available at the moment... but Google is not going to take anyone on until they get their marketing strategy sorted.

They can rely on word of mouth from tech blogs and forums to get US interested.... but the majority of people aren't as nerdy as us!

To be fair I don't care if it sells anywhere near Iphone levels... I like knowing that my phone is not as common, and better than all those Iphone zombies!

[TonyHoyle]

Originally Posted by viperman

Here in the UK majority of people don't even know it has been released.

Not so sure about that.. it was headlined in TV news. I've had a lot of people ask about mine.

Originally Posted by viperman

They are also not accustomed to buying a phone from a website abroad.

In fact, due to the shipping, customs and 'handling' charges many just won't do it, period.

Originally Posted by viperman

Google need to start advertising using the regular channels and have distribution in the countries they wish to sell in.

It wouldn't surprise me if it was in Tescos by summer (don't quote me on that one though ).

I agree unless I can walk into carphone whorehouse and pick one up then it's a nonstarter for the mass market.

[viperman]

Good points... Especially the tax one, even I wast sure how much the phone was actually going to cost!

How does the VAT charge work anyway... my parcel wasn't marked with anything about customs and the plastic wallet still had paperwork in it?

Will I just get an invoice through the post or have I fluked through customs???!



Well Google need to act quick before a better phone comes out!!!

Fair play for trying a new marketing model... unfortunately the majority of people aren't ready for it just yet.